Do you really know your audience? At MindProber we can actually predict it

Bárbara Silva | September 12, 2018
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What’s the best landscape shot to fill your action paced soap opera? Who’s the most engaging actor, driving emotions through the roof? Don’t trust your instincts about your audience – test your content and predict their reactions.

The research possibilities in the hands of content producers and broadcasters have changed and it is not possible to try out, with real consumers, in the comfort of their sofas, any content before launching it on the market (check MindProber live and offline capabilities). Predicting behaviour is already a reality.

Most commonly, brands and any other video producers or broadcasters blindly follow what consumers say they like and believe that this will ensure ratings and commercial success. But liking it doesn’t guarantee that they tune out at some point and just change channels – as we have learned through studying the most traditional content on television: prime-time soap operas.

The initial challenge posed to us by the largest Portuguese broadcaster was to describe the emotional arc of the show – what are the more engagement moments? What leads to higher disengagement? What’s the relationship between the emotional impact and real audience ratings? (If you want to know more about this and others Case Studies contact us )

The results were amazingly clear:

  • The classic 3 act structure of each episode is clearly visible in the emotional activation timeline
  • Intense moments representing escapes or aggressions, tense moments associated with violence corresponded to peaks of engagement and paralleled with more negative declarative answers.
  • Moments where the story relaxes, more peaceful moments led to troughs in emotional activation, although the assessments made by the viewers remained positive! The participants also seemed to particularly enjoy aerial landscape shots. Who doesn’t like Portugal?

Given the scale and cleanness of our data, we decided to go a step further and actually try and predict official audience ratings. And surprisingly (well, maybe not much of a surprise, we are in fact assessing the emotional and behavioural impact of the content on a given group with research-grade equipment and low intrusion methods…), we are able to predict minute-to-minute audience losses with very high accuracy. Why only audience losses? What kind of modeling did we do? How does it all work and how can it help you? Stay tuned for our incoming technical posts and get in touch!

Keep following us on the blog, we have more to tell you about the potentialities of MindProber products and the positive impact that predicting the audience behaviour can have on your strategy.

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Bárbara Silva
Bárbara Silva


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